CBRE: Will US industrial supply increase in 2014? CBRE Research’s Jared Sullivan, senior economist with CBRE Econometric Advisors, posted a whitepaper analyzing industrial rents, vacancy and trends. Mr. Sullivan predicts few new industrial construction projects in 2014. He attributes this prediction due to low national “real rent rates” which are as low as the early 1990s, even though availability is nearing full recovery. Read the full whitepaper [here.]((http://www.cbre.com/en/research/Pages/default.aspx)
Diversification in lending sources for commercial real estate. Real Estate Weekly’s Konrad Putzier says one of the bigger stories of 2013 went hardly unnoticed: Commercial real estate financing may be at the beginning of a far reaching transformation. With new legislation making industry wide changes to the lending process, banks have been “reluctant to hand out mortgages.” The REW article points to REITs, hedge funds, private equity and crowd funding firms as becoming more prominent and accepted sources of non-traditional lending.
“This diversification of real-estate financing would mean that financing for risky projects will continue to be available despite Dodd-Frank..and as real estate financing enters a new era, it is also resembling the “good old days.” Read the full article here.
Are there troubles ahead in commercial real estate loan refinancing? The Commercial Observer published a report about the potential setbacks in commercial real estate refinancing. The article reports $1.4 trillion in commercial mortgages are set to mature between 2014 and 2017 according to a December 2013 Trepp report. The Observer article points to retail borrowers finding the greatest uphill battle with “loan-to-value ratios for loans maturing consistently higher than those of the originated loans.” Multi-family borrowers should have the “least concern” since multi-family loans carry higher than average loan-to-value ratios. Read the full article here.
Colliers pulls out crystal ball, posts predictions for 2014. Colliers International released their 25 predictions for 2014, with slow economic growth across the globe being a top trend. Top (US relevant) predictions include:
- Slow global GDP growth below 5%.
- Global investors will push into new property markets.
- US GDP growth will struggle to average 2%.
- Quantitative easing will end, interest rates will rise.
- US home prices will rise as much as 20%
- Secondary US markets will see expanded demand.
- Industrial sector will be top US performer.
Find a comprehensive look at Colliers predictions here.
Real-Estate technology takes NYC by storm. The WSJ reports four real-estate technology start ups - including View the Space, Honest Buildings, Floored and Hightower - have received more than $18 million in combined venture capital. As a whole the commercial real estate industry has been slow to incorporate Internet tools as compared to the rest of the technology industry, but real estate specific solutions could mark a new era in real estate tech. Read the full article here.
See you next week.